PetroSA's DEFINITE MAYBES

ON closer analysis, PetroSA's headline-grabbing announcement that it plans R39 billion refinery in Coega looks like something out of Alice in Wonderland. There are so many caveats that intelligent readers could be forgiven for thinking it is all smoke and mirrors, rather than news of a genuine strategic investment. For example: Venezuela's state-owned crude oil supply company is said to be in line to invest. What does "in line" mean? Not yet at the head of the queue? Are there others queuing up who are too shy to be mentioned? If so, why are they shy? Here's another: Chief executive Sipho Mkhize says PetroSA would seek equity partners. Oh, still looking then, are we? And another: (The plant) would be seeking support . So that means there is not yet enough support for the project, except for the aforementioned Venezuelans, whose support is clearly not enough eitherand even doubtful because Mkhize would not expressly confirm that PetroSA was seeking an investment from Petroleos de Venezuela. Even Coega as the site is iffy. According to Mkhize: "no final decision has been made of the location".Same goes for the pipeline from Coega to someplace inland. PetroSA "would talk to Transnet about the construction." Would? Not happened yet, then? Finally, this announcement doesn't appear on the PetroSA website. So, either it is all a load of you-know-what, timed for the December conference of the African National Congress or Mkhize has been cleverly trapped by the journalist writing the story. If so, he should be looking for another job. To be sure, Mkhize seems to have tried to tell the truth when he coyly mentioned the global shortage of equipment as well as technical and refinery construction skills. Another way of saying:" I am being forced to make this highly premature announcement for political reasons but I am afraid to say so in case I lose my cushy job?"So it is all a definite maybe then.

Poor Administration or Conspiracy?

For the second time in two months the utter chaos that is the Johannesburg Court system has allowed the Petrosa case against Imvume to lag. Spigot is beginning to think that you can use the poor adminstration of the courts to simply make cases dissapear -just in time to save embarrassment ahead of the ANC leadership indaba.

Chalk and Cheese

SPIGOT wonders if anyone else has noticed the main difference between the successful Petroline pipeline application to the National Energy Regulator (Nersa) and the failed iPayipi application to the same August, unnecessary, body. Ipayipi in essence said this: "Give us the licence and then we will parlay that into finance and skills." An amateurish and transparently pathetic approach if ever there was one. Petroline on the other hand, first marshalled the finance, the expertise and everything else -- and only then applied for a licence (the right way to do it). Only now, has Petroline begun seeking customers. They have something to sell, unlike Ipayipi who seem all along to have had nothing except the kind of empty promises that are expressed like this: "Of course, we will use your pipeline when you build it! We are totally in favour of competition! The more pipelines competing with each other, the better, old boy!" Not the same as saying we will back it with our money, of course. Spigot almost feels sorry for the iPayipi consortium -- but not sorry enough to back Mr Nather's demand for compensation for all the money he and his consortium spent on their pretty documentation that was submitted to Nersa. Greedy gambles sometimes win and sometimes lose. It's in the nature of gambling.

BIO-FUEL MEGA-POWER MOCAMBIQUE?

MORE details are emerging regarding Mocambique's bio-fuels ambitions. The Agriculture Ministry now says the deal is with the Central African Mining & Exploration Company Plc (CAMEC) and worth a cool US$ 510 million. An ethanol plant will process 120 million litres of fuel a year, as well as fertilizers. The plantation supplying raw material will be of sugarcane planted on 30,000 hectares in Gaza Province. The fuel will be aimed at the domestic and regional markets, apparently. Take that into your calculations fellahs -- especially those of you claiming to be about to build conventional oil refineries. Mocambique meanwhile quite likes being described by some journos as a bio-fuel superpower with the potential for producing 3.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Dunno about that. Remember the Groundnut scheme in the 1940s?