PetroSA's DEFINITE MAYBES

ON closer analysis, PetroSA's headline-grabbing announcement that it plans R39 billion refinery in Coega looks like something out of Alice in Wonderland. There are so many caveats that intelligent readers could be forgiven for thinking it is all smoke and mirrors, rather than news of a genuine strategic investment. For example: Venezuela's state-owned crude oil supply company is said to be in line to invest. What does "in line" mean? Not yet at the head of the queue? Are there others queuing up who are too shy to be mentioned? If so, why are they shy? Here's another: Chief executive Sipho Mkhize says PetroSA would seek equity partners. Oh, still looking then, are we? And another: (The plant) would be seeking support . So that means there is not yet enough support for the project, except for the aforementioned Venezuelans, whose support is clearly not enough eitherand even doubtful because Mkhize would not expressly confirm that PetroSA was seeking an investment from Petroleos de Venezuela. Even Coega as the site is iffy. According to Mkhize: "no final decision has been made of the location".Same goes for the pipeline from Coega to someplace inland. PetroSA "would talk to Transnet about the construction." Would? Not happened yet, then? Finally, this announcement doesn't appear on the PetroSA website. So, either it is all a load of you-know-what, timed for the December conference of the African National Congress or Mkhize has been cleverly trapped by the journalist writing the story. If so, he should be looking for another job. To be sure, Mkhize seems to have tried to tell the truth when he coyly mentioned the global shortage of equipment as well as technical and refinery construction skills. Another way of saying:" I am being forced to make this highly premature announcement for political reasons but I am afraid to say so in case I lose my cushy job?"So it is all a definite maybe then.