As we wait for the golden goose to lay...

AS we wait for the golden goose to lay the egg of a National Energy Regulator (Nersa) pipeline licence for iPayipi (iPaypipi directors being more anxious than most) Spigot muses the possible outcome of there being three new petroleum product pipelines from the southern African coast to Egoli; the Petroline one from Matola and two from Durban, Transnet's and iPayipi's. Say they were all built now, would they all immediately be fully used? Certainly, one can assume Transnet's one would be, since, with its experience, it is likely to be more efficient at first, while the other two ironed out inevitable teething problems. But, after a while, each would be roughly on a par. Would this mean a price war as they jockey for custom? Would it mean a reduction in charges? Very likely, at least in the medium term. More to the point, would any reductions be passed on to the motorist? That would depend on how transparent pipeline pricing turns out to be. History is not encouraging on this point. Also, since Transnet is a quasi-State operation, it would not be in the State's interests to see its revenue dropping. Cabinet's feelings on strategic infrastructure being in private hands are well known, so Petroline and iPayipi are unlikely to find favour should they undercut Transnet's fees. Of course, the more competition there is the better, but anyone looking at putting R8 billion or so behind iPayipi might wait some time for their investment to pay back. Everything hinges therefore on continued economic growth. Place your bets, gentlemen.