Thursday, 26 July 2007

A refinery capacity problem not an oil shortage

THE gobbledygook that passes for analysis among Greenies has it that the world is in imminent danger of running out of oil (define imminent: Er…next week? Next month? In 40 year's time?). It's wrong, of course, but such is the noise produced in the media that the real reason for high oil prices often goes unnoticed. So, hear this. It is a shortage of refining capacity, stupid. Proof of this is the four consecutives days last week of a falling crude oil price which can be directly linked to the higher than expected refinery production figures in the United States. U.S. gasoline stocks were seeing rising 400,000 barrels last week as refinery usage increased sharply. Meanwhile, OPEC's second-biggest crude producer, Iran, has announced it will increase its output if necessary. Wouldn't it be nice if all the loud mouths on the subject of cruse oil supply were compelled to hold their breath until their dire predictions actually came true? Or didn't….

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